A new Mercer and Lightcast study offers a data-driven outlook on projected U.S. healthcare workforce shortages through 2028. It examines the extent and geographic variability of expected gaps in critical healthcare roles, and provides guidance on how healthcare organizations can prepare for and respond to these changes.

Key Takeaways:

• Shortages Ahead: The U.S. may face a shortage of 100,000 healthcare workers by 2028, with disparities across states. North Carolina is ranked as the state with the largest shortage specifically in family medicine, by a significant margin. And a projected national deficit of 73,000 nurse assistants (NAs) is concerning, as only 13 states are expected to meet future demand.
• Mixed RN and Physician Outlooks: Mercer projects a slight national surplus of registered nurses (RNs) and physicians, but regional shortages could challenge care delivery.
• Geographic Pay Disparities Matter: Compensation differences could cause migration of healthcare workers across regions, worsening shortages in lower-paying states or metro areas.

Recommended Actions for Employers:

• Assess Local Risks: Analyze occupation-by-occupation supply and demand risks specific to location/region, especially for critical roles.
• Rethink Recruitment: Strengthen pipelines through partnerships, education investments, and internal training programs.
• Support Current Staff: Improve retention by addressing burnout, offering competitive pay and benefits, and enhancing career growth opportunities.

In conclusion, healthcare organizations must adopt targeted, proactive workforce strategies now to mitigate the uneven impact of future shortages and ensure the continued delivery of quality care.