Occupational Projections
D4 – Occupational Projections
NC Commerce, Labor and Economic Analysis Division
The Labor and Economic Analysis Division (LEAD) of the North Carolina Department of Commerce prepares projections of employment growth by industry and occupation for the state and sub-state areas. Employment projections are widely used by North Carolina’s workforce, educational, and economic development partners for their planning in workforce development, programs and budgets, public policy, and career exploration activities.
One of the tools in the Demand Driven Data Delivery system (D4) is the Occupational Projections tool, which provides detailed current and ten-year projections of employment information for occupations tracked by SOC code.
Long-term projections span over ten years, and are revised every two years to maintain currency and incorporate economic changes that occur in the state and local areas. Statewide short-term projections are for a 2-year period and are updated annually. Long-term projections at both the statewide and sub-state level are developed based off the most recent publicly available Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data, which typically lags the publication year by 2 years.
These projections utilize a wide variety of models to determine long term industry trends, which in turn impact the occupational projections. The projections methods and assumptions were developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Projections Management Partnership.
Using Occupational Projects for Health Workforce
This tool allows users to search by job title and/or use a series of filters to view data. LEAD has grouped health occupations under a career cluster called “Health Science” which includes 80 health-related occupations. See more below.
About the tool
The Occupational Projections tool uses a table-based system to display employment statistics and projections by SOC code. A series of filters and a keyword search feature help users find specific occupations.
This tool includes the following data in a table format for each occupation:
- Occupation Code: Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) codes are the federal standard used to classify workers into the specific category that best matches their job.
- Star Rating: Star ratings are assigned based on wages, projected growth rate, and projected job openings, and each occupation has a rating of between 1 and 5 stars. Occupations with 5 stars are considered to have better career prospects than occupations with fewer stars.
- Occupation Title: Based on SOC.
- Base Employment
- Ten Year Projected Employment
- Net Change Total
- Annual Growth Rate
- Hourly Median Wage: 2023 occupational employment and wage survey
- Annual Median Wage: 2023 occupational employment and wage survey
- Education: Minimum credential required for occupation
- Career Cluster
Standard Occupational Classification codes come in a six digital format. The first two digits indicate major groups of occupations (e.g., health care) and the remaining digits help narrow down to specific occupations (e.g., occupational therapist). In general, healthcare occupations use 29-XXXX and 31-XXXX SOC codes. The LEAD career clusters include several SOC codes outside of those major groups that are related to healthcare (e.g., Medical and Health Services Managers, Epidemiologists, etc.).
This tool defaults to providing state level data, but sub-state (i.e., regional) analysis is available on a regional basis using 16 regions, as mapped below.
Quick Filters to Find Health Occupations
The steps below will help users quickly access the tailored list of occupations categorized under the “Health Science” career cluster.
Click “More Filters”
Open “Career Clusters” dropdown filter
Select “Health Science” from dropdown options.
Following the prior steps will narrow the list of occupations to the 80 occupations categorized under “Health Science.” From here, you can further tailor the list of occupations using keywords or other criteria. You can also utilize additional filters to identify occupations based on factors such as wage ranges, projected growth, Star Rating, etc.
About the data
Projections are prepared using the methodology, software tools and guidance developed by the Projections Managing Partnership (PMP) in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Labor. The long-term industry and occupation projections are produced every two years while the short-term projection is prepared every year. Sub-state areas are prepared biannually with a focus on the Prosperity Zone sub-regions.
LEAD utilizes industry employment data derived from the Enhanced Quarterly Unemployment Insurance (EQUI) dataset. It is the most complete and timely source of monthly employment and quarterly wages information by detailed industry and county. The data contains a quarterly count of employment and wages report that is sent from employers based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code. Employment data on uncovered industries within the Unemployment Insurance (UI) program is collected from other sources such as Current Employment Statistics (CES), Census Bureau, and Railroad Retirement Board. The EQUI dataset also forms the base for federal data programs through the BLS.