Nursing Education Output Is Increasing

• Year-over-year growth in newly licensed RNs, LPNs, and CNAs reflects steady momentum in strengthening the state’s health talent pipelines. Increased public and private investments in nursing programs and increased cross-sector coordination are helping drive this progress.  However, challenges remain statewide and vary by region. Student outcomes vary by institutional type, following broader education trends, and chronic bottlenecks in clinical sites, faculty, and preceptors continue to constrain systemwide growth.
• RNs: Educational output of newly licensed BSN (Bachelor of Science in Nursing) and ADN (Associate Degree in Nursing) graduates has grown 14.9 percent over three years, helping drive a 10.6 percent increase in the licensed RNs over five years (including 4.6 percent growth in just the past year).
• LPNs: Output increased 13.4 percent over the past three years, but the overall LPN population remains 4.1 percent below pre-pandemic levels.
• CNAs: The annual supply of CNAs meets employer demand overall, but fewer CNAs are practicing than the number who hold credentials. Many people who earn a CNA use it as a stepping stone to other health occupations, do not enter the health field or leave for other industries. Significant turnover is a challenge to ensuring there are enough CNAs to meet the demand.

Turnover Remains a Challenge, Especially in Demanding Settings

• Even with rising supply and leveling demand, chronically high turnover continues to hamper workforce stabilization. Turnover (churn rates) shows some improvement in certain roles but remains persistently high, particularly in difficult or lower-wage care environments.
• RNs: Churn dropped from 50 percent to 42 percent statewide, reflecting possible improvements in retention practices and changing economic conditions. Yet open position rates vary by setting and remain elevated in behavioral health (40%), public health (24%), and long-term care (20%), compared with a statewide average of 13 percent.
• LPNs: Statewide churn is 96 percent for all settings combined and exceeds 100 percent in behavioral health and long-term services and supports. Open position rates are 23 percent.
• CNAs: Churn among CNAs exceeds 100 percent. Many individuals earn CNA credentials as stepping-stones into other health occupations, while others leave for jobs in different sectors offering similar pay with less strain. The relatively low-wage nature of these positions also means that even small pay increases from switching employers can drive turnover.

Labor Market Projections Indicate Demand is Decreasing from Pandemic Levels

• Projections suggest that annual openings, reflecting both new job growth and replacement needs from retirements, leaving healthcare or other reasons, will gradually ease by 2028, returning closer to pre-pandemic norms. This shift offers a clearer baseline for planning, reducing volatility, and enabling more predictable alignment of education pipelines with workforce needs.
• RNs: Average projected demand for each of the next three years stands at 6,960 annual openings. The supply and demand gaps may narrow if growth continues and retention improves.
• LPNs: Average projected demand for each of the next three years is estimated at 1,470 annual openings. While shortfalls remain today, steadier projections give industry and education partners room to close the gap with sustained output from nursing programs and improved retention.
• CNAs: Average projected demand for each of the next three years is 9,070 openings, and there are enough licensed CNAs to fill those positions, but many do not work as CNAs or leave the health field, and there is high turnover. This means there will be ongoing shortfalls in supply.

The default view of the graph displays the projected annual supply and replacement demand across various time-based scenarios. Users can adjust sliders to simulate the impact of interventions or changes over a cumulative three-year span. Each scenario is described as follows:

• Baseline: Represents the situation if no interventions or changes are implemented.
• Year 1: Demonstrates the effects of interventions or changes by the end of the first year.
• Year 2: Demonstrates the effects of interventions or changes by the end of the second year.
• Year 3: Demonstrates the effects of interventions or changes by the end of the third year.

By selecting a profession and adjusting the sliders to increase or decrease the annual supply or demand values, users can simulate different scenarios to address the supply-demand gap. Scenarios can include maintaining the status quo (baseline), focusing solely on demand efforts, concentrating only on supply efforts, or employing a balanced approach that considers both supply and demand-related strategies.

This interactive dashboard uses data from the 2025 HTA analysis to project future supply and demand for RNs and LPNs. It allows users to explore how adjustments to supply and/or demand may impact the projected statewide deficit (or shortage) of RNs and LPNs.

How to Use the Tool

• Select a profession of interest: Choose RN or LPN to view projections for either the RN or LPN workforce.
• Adjust the sliders: Apply percentage changes to supply and demand to see how these adjustments may affect future projections.    As you adjust the sliders, the deficit numbers in the top right corner of the chart will update automatically to reflect your revised projections
• Hover over the chart lines to view detailed tooltips with updated information on supply, demand, and projected shortages by year

Example: Slide the supply slider to the right by 10%.  Now, hover over the supply line (bottom gold) and view the deficit value at the top of the graph to see how the projected shortage may decrease between Year 1 and Year 3.